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Trump’s become a runaway train in the GOP primary: Here’s why?

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A Cook, Software analyst & Blogger.

Trump Holds Strong Grip Over GOP Base: The Coalition Behind the Power

The former President Donald Trump’s foothold in the Republican presidential primary is substantial, and its foundation is constructed on a distinct demographic: men, those with less educational achievement, and an overwhelmingly conservative faction. As the first primary draws near, these supporters stand firm in their choice, showcasing Trump’s mastery in rallying a significant portion of the GOP base.

Despite a backdrop of judicial challenges, Trump’s grip on the Republican nomination race is tightening. Early indications had suggested a potentially close contest between Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, recent national surveys tell a different story. Trump has skyrocketed past the 60% mark among Republican primary voters, a stark increase from his previous average in the 40s.

Analyzing a poll released by Quinnipiac University, which displayed a 50-point gap between Trump and DeSantis, offers deeper insights. While the poll indicates a substantial lead for Trump, with 62% support against DeSantis’ 12%, it’s the demographic details that provide a clearer picture of the political landscape.

Trump’s voters are predominantly on the far-right spectrum, with 46% identifying as “very conservative”, a stark contrast to the 22% among supporters of other candidates. Surprisingly, despite the conservative leanings of DeSantis and biotech magnate Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump remains the champion for the “very conservative” faction.

Education also plays a role in the division. Trump’s white supporter base mainly consists of non-degree holders, with 54% not having a college degree, while only 15% possess a bachelor’s degree. In contrast, other candidates see a balanced 36% of both non-degree and degree holders in their white supporter group.

The gender gap isn’t as pronounced as one might expect. Trump remains the preferred choice for Republican women, even if a slight majority of his supporters are men.

Commitment level is another clear differentiator. Trump’s supporters are unwavering. A whopping 68% of them claim to have already made up their minds, a sentiment echoed in a Monmouth University-Washington Post poll that showed 76% of Trump supporters in South Carolina standing firmly behind him.

Trump’s become a runaway train in the GOP primary: Here’s why?
42 percent of Trump voters in the primary were women in the poll, and the former president was the top choice of Republican women by far.© Toby Brusseau/AP Photo

However, those rallying behind other candidates aren’t necessarily anti-Trump. In a recent Fox News survey, while 65% of all Republican participants said they’d “definitely” vote for Trump, another 22% remained open to the idea. This culminates in 86% of Republicans considering Trump, far outpacing DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

In essence, the Republican primary is largely driven by a majority that leans towards Trump, particularly the conservative, less-educated segment. Those opposing Trump might be holding onto hopes of a legal revelation or an unexpected electoral twist, but such hopes are slender threads in the larger tapestry of the GOP landscape.

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